VerSprite Envisions: Critical Threat Report 2026

Geopolitical Trends Influencing Cybercrime

The threat landscape has entered a new phase. Digital risk is no longer confined to isolated incidents—it’s intertwined with boardroom strategy, operational design, and geopolitical competition. In an era of persistent instability, the challenges are interconnected, broader, and harder to contain.

VerSprite’s 2026 Envisions Report is the only annual intelligence publication that systematically connects geopolitical shifts to cybersecurity risk. This isn’t vendor research or threat data aggregation—it’s strategic analysis of how global forces reshape your attack surface.

The Only Report That Connects Geopolitics to Cyber Risk

Most threat reports catalog vulnerabilities and attack trends. We do something different: we trace how export controls, tech decoupling, hybrid warfare, and sovereign competition directly alter the cyber threat environment your organization faces.

We hold ourselves accountable. Every year, we grade our prior forecasts before making new ones. See what we got right in 2025—from AI-driven fraud operations in Southeast Asia to ransomware’s evolution as a geopolitical instrument—and understand why analytical rigor matters more than prediction.

We deliver strategic context. Technology doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Supply chain fragmentation, submarine cable targeting, and quantum collection strategies are shaped by state competition, not just technical capability. Understanding the geopolitical drivers helps you anticipate where risk concentrates next.

Eight Critical Threat Vectors for 2026

1. Space Systems as a Cyber Battleground – GNSS disruption, ground-segment vulnerabilities, and cascading failures across aviation, maritime, and emergency services
2. Undersea Cable Security Goes Strategic – Physical and cyber convergence threatening global data flows and digital commerce
3. Ransomware as Geopolitics – Safe havens, enabling ecosystems, and the shift from cybercrime to state-aligned strategic instrument
4. Supply Chain Cyber as Top Geopolitical Risk – Dependency is the new perimeter; vendor realignment creates transitional vulnerability windows
5. US-China Tech Decoupling Reshapes Cyber Risk – Parallel technology stacks, compatibility gaps, and forced architectural transitions
6. Hybrid Conflict Playbooks – Synchronized cyber, drone, and information operations creating spillover risk for commercial infrastructure
7. Quantum Arms Race – Harvest now, decrypt later: state collection programs and the slow post-quantum migration challenge
8. Cloud Monoculture Vulnerabilities – Identity and control plane compromise as systemic single points of failure across critical sectors

Built for Security Leaders and Risk Decision-Makers

This report is designed to inform strategy, not just operations. Read it to understand how geopolitical competition creates cyber exposure. Use it to identify structural risks that won’t resolve through patching alone. Apply it to build resilience where traditional controls fall short.

VerSprite pioneered the PASTA threat modeling methodology and remains an industry leader in risk-based security services. We partner with organizations that recognize cybersecurity as a strategic discipline, not a compliance exercise.

In a world of persistent geopolitical turbulence, stronger defenses matter. Clearer thinking about where risk concentrates matters just as much.

Download the Full 2026 Envisions Report

The only annual publication connecting geopolitical trends to cybersecurity risk.